Uncertainty and market volatility tend to increase during the run-up to U.S. presidential elections, but the 2020 campaign seems more divisive than usual.
Given the binary nature of the U.S. presidential election, the election’s outcome will likely favor certain industries while adversely affecting others. Markets don’t like that kind of uncertainty. Now nine months into the COVID-19 pandemic, investors are cautious, and markets are already anxious.
So far, massive fiscal stimulus enacted after the virus outbreak have been unable to bring the general U.S. economy in line with the U.S. stock markets. The likelihood of more monetary and fiscal stimulus is helping to keep interest rates historically low. Additionally, the Federal Reserve has said it has no intentions of increasing interest rates for fear of further diluting the recovery. This may help stocks in the “reopening trade,” that is, those exposed to economic recovery.
But questions about what kind of policies to expect after the election are adding to market uncertainty. That’s because the outcome of the contest between incumbent President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has the potential to significantly affect public policy and how industries and companies do business. Here’s how we think policy and industry could be affected in each scenario.
A Biden victory could likely mean higher taxes and increased regulation of certain industries. It may also include increased federal spending on infrastructure and clean energy, and criminal justice reform.
Biden has promised to restore and augment the Affordable Care Act (ACA). He also promised to increase capital gains tax rates and create programs to make participation in the U.S. economy more diverse and inclusive. A Biden White House benefits hospitals and health care providers, and pressures drug companies and financial services companies that could be subject to more stringent regulation.
On the other hand, we have had almost four years to observe what a Trump presidency looks like. A second term for President Donald Trump could deliver more changes to immigration policies and a possible U.S. exit from NATO. The President is also likely to continue weakening the ACA, if not fully repeal it. He may also try to overhaul entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
President Trump’s policies could benefit the financials sector by supporting a low-regulation environment. Defense-related companies could also see support through increased federal spending. While his changes to the corporate tax code have generally benefited businesses, the possibility of continued trade disputes and more isolationist policies could hamper free trade. This prospect continues to worry some investors.
The expectation that Biden would reverse some of the Trump administration’s pro-business policies may pressure corporate earnings, which are already uncertain because of the pandemic.
Research indicates, however, that stock performance has less to do with who wins presidential elections and more to do with the overall makeup of the U.S. government. Therefore, the outcomes of the congressional races are arguably more important to the markets.
A “blue wave” sweep of a Democratic White House and both houses of Congress would make it easier to enact swift policy changes that could pressure stocks. A Biden victory coupled with a split Congress, however, would make it much more difficult for the new president to enact his policy proposals.
The tense U.S./China relationship continues to trouble global markets, and the Trump administration’s confrontational approach to China is well documented. If trade conflicts, retaliatory regulations, or supply chain disruptions increase, they would weigh on an already weakened global economy. This would be an unwelcome development as economies begin to look toward recovery beyond the global health crisis. The Democratic challenger says he will negotiate aggressively with China. However, it’s expected that U.S./China relations would improve during a Biden presidency.
The final, and very sobering, concern as we head into the campaign season’s final weeks is the growing possibility of a contested election. In the case of a close result, or in disputed results from mail-in and absentee ballots, we might see the failure to achieve a peaceful transition of power for the first time in U.S. history. Such an event would very likely upset global markets considerably until the U.S. reaches an accepted resolution.
The current market uncertainty is significant and distracting. However, we don’t think it’s in anyone’s best interest to try and predict the U.S. election’s results. Instead, we continue to focus on the specific business case for each stock we select for our portfolios. Likewise, we think investors should consider doing the same—take a longer-term view and stick to an investment plan.
Investment return and principal value of security investments will fluctuate. The value at the time of redemption may be more or less than the original cost. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The opinions expressed are those of American Century Investments (or the portfolio manager) and are no guarantee of the future performance of any American Century Investments' portfolio. This material has been prepared for educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal or tax advice.
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