Global Bond Market Brief

Notes from the Global Fixed Income Desk

By Rich Taylor & Joyce Huang, CFA - November 2019

Our Global Outlook

It was another volatile month for Treasury yields, as investors reacted to better-than-expected earnings, economic and trade news and a late-month rate cut from the Fed. We believe volatility will remain the norm in the near term, highlighting the importance of active management in uncovering global opportunities.

Economy. We expect GDP growth in the U.S. to remain at or slightly below trend levels (2.0%-2.5% annualized), outpacing other developed markets, where growth remains notably weaker. Emerging markets growth should remain relatively stable.

Rates. We believe the Fed’s October’s rate cut likely was the last rate adjustment for a while, as the central bank assesses the economic effects of the year’s three easing moves. Rates remain unusually low or negative in other developed markets—an anomaly that’s fueling robust demand for U.S. bonds and helping to keep U.S. yields unusually low.

Inflation. We expect inflation to remain muted and below central bank targets around the world. We don’t see a near-term catalyst for higher inflation.

Rich Taylor
Rich Taylor
Sr. Client Portfolio Manager
Joyce Huang, CFA
Joyce Huang, CFA
Sr. Client Portfolio Manager

Global Bond Market Brief

Notes from the Global Fixed Income Desk

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